EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
of The Timber Employment Impact of the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming

by
Thomas Michael Power
Professor and Chairman
Economics Department
University of Montana
Missoula, Montana 59812

September, 1992

Note: this WWW uplink is missing several tables contained in the orginal report. For a complete copy of the report including the tables, contact AWR.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The research for the four studies covering the five-state region of the Northern Rockies which are summarized in this document was carried out as part of a larger project studying the transformation of the economies of the Rocky Mountain states away from primary reliance on extractive, natural resource industries. Support for this segment of the study came from the Voice of the Environment, the Alliance for the Wild Rockies, and the University of Montana. Of course none of these funding sources are responsible for the contents of the reports or the conclusions reached.

1. Introduction

The primary public concern about protecting unroaded wildlands by prohibiting or restricting commodity production on those lands is the impact on local employment. The widely held view is that protecting the natural character of these landscapes will take desperately needed natural resources from industries that dominate the local economies. As a result, the local economies and local residents will be impoverished. Whatever may be the environmental advantages of such wildland protection, the local economic impacts are assumed to be negative and large. This presents local residents as well as the nation as a whole with a "tragic choice": They can preserve unique and valuable ecosystems only at the cost of seriously damaging the economic well-being of those living adjacent to these natural areas.

The analyses contained in four separate reports on the employment impact of protecting roadless areas in Idaho, Montana, Eastern Oregon and Washington, and Northwestern Wyoming shows that not only is this not the case but the opposite is more likely to be true: Protected landscapes are a crucial part of the economic base of the Northern Rockies and these high quality natural environments have provided ongoing vitality in the local economies of the Northern Rockies states despite the ongoing decline in employment in extractive industries. Further damage to that landscape through extension of roaded logging into Northern Rockies' remaining wildlands threatens the region's economic future while providing very few current jobs.

2. The Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act

Natural areas cannot be protected in a way that retains their natural wildland and wildlife characteristics if they become isolated islands cut off from other natural areas by intensive human activity. Such "island wildernesses" overtime will deteriorate and lose their ability to support healthy wildlife populations. Because of the need to link such natural areas together and protect whole ecosystems, a more comprehensive approach to wilderness protection has been offered in the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act (NREPA).

NREPA recognizes that the ecosystems that support unique wildlife populations in the Northern Rockies, including the grizzly bear, timber wolf, and caribou, are being fragmented in a way that threatens both these wildlife populations and the nation's premier national parks, Glacier and Yellowstone. To halt this fragmentation, NREPA proposes to protect virtually all remaining roadless areas in the Northern Rockies from roaded development and commodity production. It also seeks to rehabilitate crucial wildlife corridors linking roadless areas together. Finally, it seeks to protect riparian corridors along the region's major streams and rives. In total, NREPA would protect about 20 million acres of wildlands and 1400 miles of wild and scenic streams.

The most often repeated objection to preserving all of these remaining wildlands is that it would cripple the economies of the Northern Rocky Mountain states by eliminating timber harvest that are crucial to one of the region's primary export industries. To critically analyze these claims, studies were conducted of the timber employment impact of extending protection to virtually all of the remaining roadless areas in the Northern Rockies states. Individual studies, each about 70 pages in length, were carried out for National Forest economic impact areas in Idaho, Montana, Eastern Oregon and Washington, and Northwestern Wyoming. This executive summary briefly presents the results. The individual reports are listed at the end of this summary.

3. General Conclusions on the Employment Impact of NREPA

The remaining roadless areas of the Northern Rockies are far more important to region's economy left in their natural state than they are as sources of raw materials. The future vitality of the Northern Rockies's economy is tied to its ability to attract and hold people. One of its most important "resources" in doing this is its unique natural landscape and the wildlife and recreation that landscape supports.

Increasing amounts of economic activity in these states are "landscape-related" in the sense that that economic activity is supported and enhanced by the high quality natural environment tied to our wild landscapes. At the same time, as important as our extractive industries are, they will not be sources of economic vitality in the future. Extractive industry has been a declining source of jobs and income during the 1980s and this relative and absolute decline can be expected to have an ongoing negative impact on the vitality of the Northern Rockies economy. See Figures 1 and 2. The region's future hope lies in cultivating those economic forces operating to offset this decline. The natural amenities associated with the Northern Rockies' landscape represent such a positive economic force.

This is not merely wishful thinking or an academic hypothesis. The centers of vitality in the Northern Rockies economies have been those areas known for their high quality natural landscapes and recreational opportunities: the Flathead Valley, the Bozeman area, the Bitterroot, etc. in Montana, the Jackson, Cody, and Sheridan areas in Wyoming, the Coeur d'Alene, McCall, Sun Valley areas of Idaho, and the rural northeast corner of Washington, to name just a few. These areas have shown substantial economic vitality while their extractive economic bases have contracted. Clearly their economic vitality is not tied to extractive industry but, rather, to their attractiveness as places to live, work, and do business. It is these attractive natural amenities that need to be protected if the state's economic vitality is to be enhanced. Sacrificing these economically important natural amenities in order to temporarily support an extractive industry in decline is the opposite of economic development. It is a prescription for ongoing economic decline.

4. Specific Conclusions about Timber-Related Job Impacts

If wilderness protection were to be extended to virtually all of the remaining U.S. Forest Service (FS) roadless areas in the Northern Rockies, about one-tenth of one percent of all jobs in the region would be directly lost due to reduced timber harvests compared to the timber harvest now planned by the FS. When the indirect and induced effects of these direct job losses are taken into account, the total employment impact would be the loss of about one-quarter of one percent of total employment. Of the over one million jobs in the region, approximately 1,400 would be directly threatened. With normal job growth as seen in the region over the last decade, this direct job loss would be made up in less than a month, about three weeks.

That is, the economic cost of preserving about 20 million acres more of wildlands than the FS or the region's political leaders support is the loss of the number of jobs typically created in any three week period.

Table 1 below shows the distribution of these jobs across the various National Forest economic impact areas in the Northern Rockies. The economic areas studies were those defined by the FS as directly affected by forest management activities on the national forests listed. Except for the towns of Boise, Great Falls, and Billings, no metropolitan counties were included. The economic impact areas are largely rural counties in the Northern Rocky Mountains.

These employment impacts were estimated by using Forest Service data on the "suitable timber" acreage in current roadless areas. The impact of removing these acres from the suitable timber base on the annual allowable sale quantity and the long term sustained timber yield of the forest was analyzed. Forest Service estimates of the total direct, indirect, and induced employment associated with each million board feet of timber harvested were used even though they are based upon 1970s lumber mill and timber harvest technologies. These employment multipliers were then used to convert the reduced timber harvest to reduced employment.

It is important to keep in mind that these are not net job losses. These are the jobs that may be lost in the timber-sector. Offsetting these job losses are the on-going gains in employment associated with protecting the landscapes that have been the primary source of vitality in the economies of the Northern Rockies.

5. Why The Timber-Related Job Impacts Are Small

a. Most roadless areas in the Northern Rockies are not suitable for timber management and therefore are not part of the FS timber base. The FS has found more than 80 percent of these roadless acres to be unsuited for timber management. That 80 percent can be put off limits to timber harvest with no impact on the wood products industry. See Table 2 for a listing of the percentage of the NREPA-protected roadless areas that are part of the suitable timber base.

b. The primary connection between national forest lands and the local economy often is not through timber harvest but through recreation. Timber harvest from public lands often represents a very small part of the local economy. Tables 3 and 4 show this for Montana and Wyoming. In Montana, on six of the ten national forests, recreation and wildlife activities are responsible for over two-thirds of the national forest-related employment while timber harvest was responsible for less than a quarter of the forest-related employment. Overall national forest timber harvests were responsible for less than one percent of total employment in the national forest counties.

In Wyoming, timber harvest is responsible for only six percent of forest related employment and eight percent of forest-related income. Recreation and wildlife activities are responsible for about three-quarters of forest-related economic activity. As a result, only one-tenth of one percent of income in the FS economic impact areas in Wyoming is tied directly to FS timber harvests.

c. Timber harvests have been a declining source of employment in the Northern Rockies. During the 1980s the employment per million board feed of timber harvested declined by over 30 percent. Automation and shifts to less labor-intensive products are reducing the employment potential associated with each thousand board feet of timber harvested.

d. Wood products and other extractive industries have been a declining source of jobs and income in the Northern Rockies' economies. During the 1980s, employment associated with these industries was unstable and declining. Yet the non-extractive sectors were able to expand. As a result, the relative and absolute importance of these industries as a source of employment declined. See Figures 1 and 2. The fact that the non-extractive sectors of the Northern Rockies' economies were able to expand despite the collapse of the extractive sectors, dramatizes the vitality in those economies that is unrelated to extractive industry and has been operating to off-set the depressing effects of the extractive sectors. High quality natural landscapes are an important part of that vitality.

e. The FS has exaggerated the timber harvests that are actually possible within these roadless areas. FS plans for these areas were drawn up on the basis of inaccurate timber inventory and site productivity data. Those plans ignored constrains on the spatial distribution of timber harvests. The FS simply assumed that it would be able to meet water quality and fish habitat standards but has found that it cannot. Old growth and endangered species protection were originally inadequately accounted for. As a result of those errors and inadequacies in FS planning, the allowable sale quantities the FS originally projected as coming from these roadless areas cannot and will not be realized. Almost all NFs in the region are now in the process of reducing actual sales to well below those projected in the forest plans.

f. Roadless areas are the most costly and least productive areas from a timber management point of view. That means that most of these areas can be managed for timber only at substantial losses to the U.S. taxpayer. Congress and the Administration is putting increasing pressure on the FS to end such below-cost timber management. As a result, many of these roadless areas will have to be removed from the suitable timber base.

6. Mitigation Measures to Offset Timber-Related Employment Losses

Although the employment impact of protecting virtually all of the remaining roadless areas in the Northern Rockies is likely to be positive and the timber-related job losses will be small, there are measures that could be taken to reduce the impact on the forest products industry. These include the following:

a. A reduction in federally subsidized harvest of timber from public lands will automatically make the management of private lands for timber more profitably. This will lead to increased production from private lands that will at least partially offset the decline in harvest from public lands.

b. The FS can avoid some of the losses associated with restricted harvests in roadless areas by more intensively managing the already roaded land base. To the extent that these areas are less expensive to manage for timber and more productive for timber, there will be net gains from such a shift in emphasis.

c. Areas badly damaged by past timber harvest activities can be rehabilitated. Instead of focusing its management efforts on extending the reach of destructive harvesting techniques, the FS can focus resources on repairing the damage associated with past harvests. This would provide jobs that offset any decline in timber-related employment. NREPA specifically mandates such rehabilitation investments.

d. Reductions in the export of raw logs would increase the timber supply to mills throughout the northwest. The shipping of logs to the Far East has, through displacement of supply, created restricted supplies throughout the region.

e. Increased recycling of cardboard and paper can increase the supply of fiber available to both paper mills and lumber mills. Recycled paper can provide fiber to paper and paperboard mills, reducing their need to pursue round wood for raw material and protecting them against a decline in the supply of chips associated with a decline in lumber and plywood mill output.

f. As lumber mill operations focus increasingly upon the production of the least labor intensive products using the least labor intensive production processes, only efforts to increase the labor content of wood products operations can protect wood products employment. There are wood products that are much more labor intensive. The log home industry is the extreme example. But other "value added" operations are also possible including the production of more specialized products compared to the standard two-by-four or two-by-six stud. Some mills in Northern Rockies have already shifted this direction in pursuit of more stable markets.

7. Conclusion

The residents of the Northern Rockies do not face a tragic choice that forces them to choose between preserving their natural wildland heritage and impoverishing themselves. Protecting wildlands and enhancing their economic well-being are not only compatible objectives, but, more importantly, our economic future is tied to protecting the unique qualities of the natural landscape in the Northern Rockies.

The timber-related job loss associated with protecting almost all of the remaining roadless areas in the Northern Rockies is quite small because most of those roadless areas are not suitable for timber management and because the wood products industry has been shrinking in relative and absolute importance in Northern Rockies for over a decade now. A few weeks worth of normal job growth in Northern Rockies's National Forest counties will offset what small impact there is.

The economic future of the Northern Rockies is tied to what makes it unique: its spectacular natural landscape and the wildlife it supports. These world-class recreation, wildlife, and scenic resource will grow increasingly valuable as environmental sensibilities continue to develop and as more and more natural environments are degraded by industrial and urban development. The positive impact the natural landscape has upon the economy can already be seen in many of the Northern Rockies's "wilderness" counties which have become the sources of vitality for the region's economy.

To open the remaining unprotected roadless areas in the Northern Rockies to roaded logging would represent pure economic waste. These areas can only be logged at a loss to the federal government. Logging them will provide a few tenths of one percent to total employment in an industry that has been a declining source of employment and income. In the pursuit of these few jobs, we will permanently sacrifice Northern Rockies' real economic base: the natural landscape that attracts and holds residents here while supporting them physically and spiritually in a way found in few other places in this nation. There is no compelling economic logic to roaded timber development of the Northern Rockies' remaining roadless areas.

Full Studies Conducted

1. The Employment Impact of the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act in Montana, March 1992, 73 pp.

2. The Timber Employment Impact of the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act in Idaho, June, 1992, 80 pp.

3. The Timber Employment Impact of the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act in Washington and Oregon, August, 1992, 72 pp.

4. The Timber Employment Impact of the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act in Wyoming, September, 1992, 56 pp.

HOME | SITE INDEX | NREPA | PROGRAMS | MEMBER SERVICES | JOIN AWR

Alliance for the Wild Rockies
PO Box 8731 • Missoula, Montana • 59807
Phone: 406-721-5420 • Fax: 406-721-9917
E-mail: awr@wildrockies.org

Content Copyright 1999 Alliance for the Wild Rockies, unless otherwise noted.

Page design by Picture Tomorrow, Creative Visions for Conservation